Progress for young teams is rarely linear. A breakout year can easily be followed by a step back - and that also might be true for the Detroit Pistons, who climbed last season from the 14-win depths of the Monty Williams era to 44 wins and a highly competitive first-round playoff series against the New York Knicks (2-4).

Still, there’s every reason to believe the Pistons will keep trending upward. Cade Cunningham is a slightly less polished version of Luka Dončić, turnovers and all (4.4 per game last season - second-most in the league). Jalen Duren is an ultra-efficient center (69.2% on 2-point field goals), Ausar Thompson is a physical defensive specimen, Jaden Ivey returns after missing most of last season, and Ron Holland should see more minutes.

The main question mark remains perimeter shooting - a long-standing Pistons weakness that finally improved last year, thanks to Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr., both of whom left. Dennis Schröder’s departure leaves another hole at the backcourt depth chart. Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert are expected to fill some of that offensive void. With internal growth across the roster, Detroit can realistically dream of a run to the second round in the East.

Nothing about what the Golden State Warriors have done in recent seasons is rational. It all centers around their ongoing attempt to cling to the players and coach who built their dynasty, one of the greatest eras in NBA history. Their chances of winning another championship, after the four they captured since 2015, are slim. Their stars, led by Stephen Curry, lose a bit more of their edge with each passing day. But the slow march toward the sunset at least provides an aesthetic experience for those who love beautiful basketball.

Since Jimmy Butler’s arrival last season, the Warriors went 23:7 with him compared to 27:25 without him, improving on both ends of the floor. Butler was born to play Warriors basketball - the splits, the cuts, the off-ball chaos of Curry curling off screens, the extra 0.5 second of patience before the drive or pass. It’s a style unlike anything else in the league (except maybe Miami before Butler’s departure), and it will likely vanish once this version of Golden State fades away. The ages of their four key players - Horford (39), Curry (37), Butler (36), and Green (35) - make it clear that the dynasty’s last dance is closer than ever.

We’ve already covered Houston’s spacing, passing, and backcourt problems - and that was before Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury. There’s little reason to doubt their defense (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions, fourth in the league) will hold up or even improve. Still, Kevin Durant’s arrival doesn’t necessarily solve the offensive issues, especially without VanVleet.

The Rockets not only lack a starting-caliber NBA point guard - they barely have a true shooting guard aside from Durant. Nearly the entire roster consists of small forwards, power forwards, and centers. The Durant-Şengün combination could be fascinating given Şengün’s playmaking, but the spacing around them depends almost entirely on the development of Reed Sheppard, who barely played last season.

The most intriguing and pivotal player in Houston is Amen Thompson, who made the All-Defensive Team last year and will be expected to play significant minutes at point guard, despite shooting just 27.5% from three-point range. As we’ve shown before, Thompson thrives in transition,

But in half-court sets, he was primarily stationed in the dunker’s spot.

Even if Thompson continues to grow, a roster built almost entirely of forwards and bigs probably can’t really contend.

Minnesota’s formula in recent seasons has been quite effective: a strong defense anchored by Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert (fifth in opponent points last season, sixth in defensive rating), an offense built around the steady rise of superstar Anthony Edwards and his frontcourt partner (Julius Randle replacing Karl-Anthony Towns), and an above-average coach in Chris Finch. That formula has been good enough to reach the Western Conference Finals in each of the past two seasons - but the Timberwolves haven’t done much, if anything, to push beyond that plateau.

The core that got them close remains intact, aside from the departure of Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Along with Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid and newcomer Donte DiVincenzo, Minnesota has a solid seven-man rotation. Mike Conley, the team’s only proven NBA point guard, turns 38 in three days, and Rob Dillingham should make a giant leap to become a credible backup. The lack of depth is just one of several issues that may keep the Wolves’ ceiling at another Conference Finals appearance. The main issue, though, is the presence of the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference.