Sometimes things only become clear when you're watching up close. That's true in basketball, too. You can spend hours watching film, analyzing plays through Synergy, memorizing sets, and studying defensive schemes - but there's no substitute for the eye test, right there on the floor. And watching Game 4 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers in Crypto Arena, LA, sharpened one point for me: the indispensability of the one-on-one creator.

Both coaches - Mark Daigneault and JJ Redick - are great. But the game was decided by players, specifically by OKC's two guards: reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and second-year player Ajay Mitchell, who combined for 63 of their team's 115 points. Time and again, one of them drove into traffic - not necessarily off a clear advantage created by a screen (most of the Thunder's pick-and-roll action in this game was designed for switch-hunting) - and simply manufactured a bucket out of nothing, through sheer individual talent.

Shai's story - picked 11th in the 2018 Draft, acquired as a near-forgotten piece in the Clippers trade for Paul George - is well known. In a redraft, he'd be competing with Luka Dončić (who sat injured on the Lakers bench) for the top spot. The guy actually drafted first, DeAndre Ayton, wasn't even the best center on his team in this game. That was Jaxson Hayes.

Mitchell's story is still just beginning. The 38th pick in last year's draft signed a two-way deal that was converted to a standard contract - a remarkably team-friendly three-year, $9 million deal that already looks like another Sam Presti masterpiece. Add Jared McCain, who hit 13 points on three-pointers and posted a plus-27 in his minutes, and you have two of the top players in the 2024 Draft class currently playing for the Thunder. It's fair to say the team that held the #1 pick that year, the Atlanta Hawks, would have preferred either of them over the underwhelming Zaccharie Risacher, the no. 1 pick.

But Mitchell isn't just another piece in OKC's long and talented roster. He's a creator - one who allows the Thunder to cover for Jalen Williams' absence. The numbers back this up. According to Synergy, Mitchell ranks 10th among all playoff players in isolation scoring (Shai is first) and 13th in points as a pick-and-roll ball handler (Shai is second). You cannot win in the playoffs and contend for a championship without high-level creators. That's where everything starts - and not just in Oklahoma City. The Spurs, alongside Wembanyama, have Fox, Castle, and Harper. Minnesota has Anthony Edwards. The Knicks have Jalen Brunson. Cleveland has Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. The Detroit Pistons have Cade Cunningham. The team that wins a title this season will do so in large part because of one or more elite backcourt creators. It's a necessary condition - though not a sufficient one - for winning a championship.

Which brings us to this year's draft.

Right now, in most mock drafts, AJ Dybantsa is projected first. Cameron Boozer also gets mentioned - a terrific prospect, but a big man in the mold of Nikola Jokić, or maybe Kevin Love, depending on where you see his ceiling. For the purposes of this argument, I want to focus on the question: among perimeter players, who should go first - Dybantsa or Peterson?

Dybantsa has enormous potential, but as a creator, he leans heavily on strength and athleticism, often through spin moves with his back to the basket - moves that reveal technical limitations. More importantly, he's shooting 33.1% from three, and in the playoffs, he'll face sagging coverages that will make it even harder for him to create. His ceiling may be an improved version of Jaylen Brown, who was Finals MVP on a championship team, yes, but as the secondary creator alongside Jayson Tatum. The real question the Washington Wizards have to ask is whether Dybantsa can be the primary wing creator on a team with real playoff aspirations. Maybe in a few years. But right now, that ceiling feels a bit ambitious - mainly because of the shooting.

The case against Peterson at #1 is well documented: he missed time due to injuries and strange absences, which he recently attributed to cramping from creatine use; his 3.2 assists per 100 possessions is very low for a player running a 33.5% usage rate; he was less explosive than during his high school days and leaned more toward perimeter shooting; and his comment that he's been "kind of an anti-social loner" his whole life doesn't exactly inspire confidence about his fit in an NBA locker room. I'm not dismissing any of these concerns.

On the other hand - and this is what matters most to me - Peterson was a scorer in college too, at a stronger program than Dybantsa's BYU: Kansas. He shot 38.2% from three on high volume. All season, he was locked into the two-guard role, playing more as an off-ball shooter than as a lead initiator. Defensively, he was solid as well, with 1.6 steals per game. 

Most importantly: Peterson's creation ability is real - it just hasn't been unlocked yet. Give him more opportunities to push in transition, run pick-and-roll as the ball handler, or work in isolation, and you'll see a different player. His shooting will also make separation far easier to generate at the NBA level, especially under rules that inherently tilt the floor toward the offense.

Could the Peterson experiment fail? Absolutely. Character concerns or medical issues we're not yet aware of could hold him back. But his ceiling is higher - simply because he is a more advanced creator than Dybantsa. And to win a championship, that's exactly the player you need.

That's why, in my view, Darryn Peterson should be the first pick in the draft.